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The
fight of the Generals
IAfter
the successful holding of primaries for the upcoming presidential
elections, two former Generals emerged as the flag-bearers of the
two major political parties in Nigeria. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo,
the incumbent President, emerged as the presidential candidate of
the People's Democratic Party (PDP), while Gen. Buhari was elected
by the All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP). Not only the fact that
the two personalities are perceived to be two poles of the political
spectrum, but their respective ethnic background (Obasanjo stems
from the Yoruba ethnic group from South Western Nigeria, Gen. Buhari
stems from the Hausa/Fulani ethnic group from Northern Nigeria)
gives cause for analytical guesses which other ethnic groups will
support the respective candidates.
Obasanjo, apart from his record as a civilian president between
1999 and 2003, was the first military ruler voluntarily handing
over power to a civilian government in 1979, while Buhari, who overthrew
the very same civilian government four years later, was ousted by
a fellow military ruler, Gen. Babaginda, never anticipating officially
any transition to civilian rule. Buhari was recognised for his harsh
application of the rule of law, including the shooting of convicted
drug dealers, thieves and murderers in public at Bar Beach in Lagos.
Both presidential candidates have shown in recent times their strong
commitment towards religious matters, Obasanjo being a "born-again"
Christian, while Buhari is a Muslim. Buhari has been branded for
his purported remark that Muslims should only vote for Muslims,
while in press interviews he rejects to have ever made this remark.
It is noteworthy to remember that Buhari was, during the military
rule of the infamous Gen. Abacha, the Head of the Petroleum Trust
Fund (PTF), an institution seen by many Nigerians as a vehicle to
siphon public funds to corrupt military personnel during the time.
PTF was scrapped immediately after Obasanjo took power in 1999.
Both candidates play in some way the ethnic card: while the running
mate of Obasanjo is Atiku Abubakar, a politician with a strong base
in the Middle belt, Buhari presented Okadigbo, an Igbo and chased
out Senate President of the Fourth Republic, as his vice-presidential
candidate. Okadigbo, meant to deliver the votes of the South East,
is, however, not the uncontested leader of the Igbo ethnic group.
Igbos, traditionally divided in their political ambitions, have
produced more presidential candidates for the forthcoming elections
than any other ethnic group, including the former head of state
of the defunct Republic of Biafra, Chief Chukwuemeka Ojukwu.
Both primaries, held at the Eagle Square in Abuja, did not go down
well with candidates who lost. The main opponent to Obasanjo's PDP
re-election bid, Dr. Ekwueme, an Igbo and former vice-president
during the Second Republic under Shagari, had high hopes to fetch
the presidential ticket. But he was greatly upset by his defeat
(he got less than one third of the votes) and is actually instituting
court actions to annul the primaries. Up to today, no reconciliation
between the party leadership and Dr. Ekwueme seems to be in sight.
But even ANPP's primaries were not without glitches: All other contestants
at the ANPP primaries pulled out of the election process when it
became clear that the ANPP leadership supported a "consensus"
candidate in the person of Gen. Buhari, with Okadigbo as his vice-presidential
candidate. Even though no formal legal action has been instituted
against the outcome of the primaries, observers widely belief that
Buhari might not receive the full support of all quarters of ANPP
during the actual presidential elections.
It will be interesting to see which voting pattern will emerge during
the elections. There are indications that the South West, dominated
by the Yoruba-led Action for Democracy (AD), are not fielding a
presidential candidate, thus literally rendering their votes to
the Obasanjo/Abubakar ticket, in order to guarantee a second term
for a "son of the soil". And after Obasanjo seems to have
reached an agreement with the governor of the Delta region, the
oil-rich backbone of Nigeria, on the question of the on-shore/off-shore
dichotomy, the likely decisive factor will be the voting pattern
of the Middle Belt. Can Atiku Abubakra deliver?
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30
parties - democratic diversity of anarchy
At
the beginning of the new democratic dispensation in Nigeria, only
three political parties were registered by the preceding military
government of Gen. Abdusalami Abubakar: namely the People's Democratic
Party (PDP), the All People's Party (APP) and the Action for Democracy
(AD). While PDP emerged as the most powerful party in the election
for governorship and both houses of the National Assembly (21 of
the 36 Governors; 63 of the 109 Senators in the upper house; and
214 of 360 Representatives in the lower house) and equally produced
the Head of State, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, APP (meanwhile re-christened
to All Nigerian People's Party, ANPP) seemed to be the classical
opposition party forever. As AD is widely perceived as an ethnically
committed party (dominated by the ethnic group of Yoruba), there
seemed to be no doubt that the presidential candidate of PDP would
become the next President.
However, things have changed meanwhile. In June 2002, the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) registered three additional
parties (All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), National Democratic
Party (NDP), United Nigeria People's Party (UNPP)). But other applicants
were not satisfied with INEC's decision and sought a court order
to allow their own registration. Subsequently, in December 2002,
24 additional parties were cleared for registration: African Renaissance
Party (ARP); All Peoples Liberation Party (APLP); Better Nigeria
Progressive Party (BNPP); Community Party of Nigeria (CPN); Democratic
Alternative (DA); Green Party of Nigeria (GPN); Justice Party (JP);
Liberal Democratic Party of Nigeria (LDPN); Masses Movement of Nigeria
(MMN); Movement for Democracy and Justice (MDJ); National Action
Council (NAC); National Conscience Party (NCP); National Mass Movement
of Nigeria (NMMN); National Reformation Party (NRP); New Democrats
(ND); New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP); Nigeria Advance Party (NAP);
Nigerian People's Congress (NPC); Party for Social Democracy (PSD);
People's Mandate Party (PMP); People's Redemption Party (PRP); People's
Salvation Party (PSP); Progressive Action Congress (PAC); and, United
Democratic Party (UDP). Thus, the political landscape of Nigeria
is now shaped by 30 political parties.
Even though some of these parties are headed by quite prominent
Nigerian politicians, the majority of these parties seem to be creations
of people who were disgruntled by their inability to get prominent
appointments or at least candidatures. Thus, the bane of the Nigerian
political landscape seems to prevail: parties are rather personality-oriented
than based on ideology. All parties, however, have forwarded their
manifestos which look very much alike, while the real issue seems
to be the advancement of the political career of the leading personalities
of the parties. Apart from the fact that only 19 parties officially
declared up to now for a presidential candidate, partly due to the
steep fee of five million Naira for the nomination, much discussion
was reported by the media on coalitions against the major "old"
parties. Some observers suggested that the new parties were only
created as a bargaining chip for the political ambitions of the
founding fathers to deliver certain votes to the "real"
contestants PDP and ANPP. According to this assessment, such support
could gain them political appointments by the next administration,
thus paying off their investment during the ongoing campaign.
Politically motivated violence is still prevailing in Nigeria with
an upward trend. Supporters of candidates from different parties,
or even from opponents within the same party, seem to apply any
means, from intimidation to murder, to ensure their success. Law
enforcement agencies seem to be helpless in checking the ongoing
battles, despite of assurances by the Inspector General of Police
that all has been done to allow for hitch free elections.
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Nigeria
- not safe for travellers?
IMuch
agitation ensued by the latest postings of the British government
on its official web site: Nigeria was declared to be not safe for
UK citizens. An outcry swept through the media and even official
response was less than diplomatic: Britain was reminded of the unresolved
murder cases where Nigerians or citizens of Nigerian origin were
involved and the heads of British Airways and Virgin were called
to the Foreign Ministry.
Nigeria is particularly upset about the suggestion that Nigeria
might be exposed to terrorist acts. Apart from this, the British
Foreign Office mentioned the violence in the Delta Region where
even kidnapping of business people or oil company staff is the order
of the day. A Nigerian official suggested that now, that British
citizens will travel less to Nigeria due to the warning, it would
be appropriate to cut down on the slots for British Airways and
Virgin flights. But the British envoy to Nigeria defended the information
and insisted that the displayed assessment was correct.
It is not new that Nigeria is mentioned for security problems throughout
web pages of major European and American countries. The increasing
crime rate in the mega-city of Lagos and the increased number of
kidnappings in the Delta Region have been featuring already in past
editions. Speculations about the recent explosion in Lagos, which
destroyed four houses in the centre of the city, and subsequent
police reports on the discovery of bomb material among the rubble,
raised even in the Nigerian media the question on terrorist activities.
And there is also no doubt that kidnapping for ransom is a more
or less regular occurrence in the Delta Region. The actual fight
for resources, or the at least payments based on the resources in
the area, has clearly not ceased. Increasing poverty and the ruthless
abuse of youth organisations by politicians and traditional leaders
for their selfish means have created an atmosphere of insecurity,
which regularly is decried in the Nigerian media. But a foreigner,
and by that the former colonial master, mentioning the very same
facts does not go down well with Nigerian national pride.
The truth might be found, as often, on a middle ground. Nigeria
is not a heaven of safety, and like in many other countries, travellers
are well advised to take precautions while in the country. European
and American communities within Nigeria are large and many foreign
employees or business people live with their families in the country.
But all know very well to avoid certain places at certain times
to minimise security risks. And, to tell the truth, so do many Nigerians,
among them even the journalists who placated the British "intrusion"
in the internal affairs of Nigeria.
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